Category: VC
August 24, 2025 SaaStr : Winner-Take-All Has Taken Over Venture
The Top 1% of AI Start-Ups Are Now Valued at 3-10x ‘Normal’ Multiples. Seed rounds in the 99th percentile are hitting $161M valuations. That’s not a typo. That’s +123% higher than even the 95th percentile at $72M. The top tier really has discovered a new form of value creation that justifies infinite multiples We’re in the late stages of a bubble where “AI” has become the new “blockchain” or “metaverse” (read more…)
CATEGORY: VC, winner take all
June 2, 2025 SaaStr : AI Startups Burn Through Cash 2x as Fast
#1. AI Companies Are Burning Through $100M in Half the Time It Used to Take #2. 68% of Enterprise Capital Now Goes to $100M+ Rounds #3. Series A Graduation Rates Have Collapsed to Historic Lows #4. The Middle in VC is Getting Hollowed Out #5. 40% of VC Fundraising Capital Now Comes from AI-Focused Funds #6. Revenue Per Employee Is Skyrocketing for AI Companies #7. The Rule of 40 Has Become the “Rule of 9” #8. Zombiecorns Are Multiplying (And It’s Getting Worse) #9. Half of Enterprise Software Startups Need to Raise Within 12 Months #10. M&A at Seed Stage Has Jumped 13 Percentage Points Since 2019 (read more…)
CATEGORY: risk, VC, winner take all
April 24, 2025 The Value VC : The Least Obvious Winners Often Pay Off: Miami and the Marlins…
I tend to do deals across a spectrum of scores (on my scoresheet) - the most obviously good ones score higher than the more questionable (though still good) deals. While the highest scoring deals should theoretically have a higher probability of outsized returns, the opposite has been true. (read more…)
CATEGORY: resilience, valuation, VC
March 19, 2025 SaaStr : 34% of All Startup Acquisitions Are By Other Start-Ups. A New Record.
First, it’s not new. 20% of deals even in 2018 were start-ups buying start-ups. And the dollar value has gone up, it’s doubled since 2018, although down from a 2023 peak. But a lot of these deals may be sort of “better than nothing” deals. Better than shutting down. Better than running out of money. And they often are better than that. (read more…)
March 11, 2025 TechCrunch : Y Combinator founders raising less money signals a ‘vibe shift’
“People used to climb Everest and they needed oxygen. Today, people climb it without oxygen. I want to summit Everest and use as little oxygen (VC) as possible.” (read more…)
CATEGORY: leadership, VC
February 24, 2025 Kyle Westway via Forbes : The New Venture Playbook: The Data Every Founder Needs To Know
About 20% of all venture capital rounds in 2024 were down rounds, double the historical average of 10%. This high percentage reflects the ongoing correction from 2021's elevated startup valuations. The time between funding rounds has also shifted significantly, with the median now extending beyond the traditional 18-24 month window. 2024 saw the highest absolute number of startup shutdowns in Carta's history. However, the failure rate remains consistent at around 90% for seed-stage companies. The bar for startup funding has risen significantly since 2021. Where once $1 million in ARR might have been sufficient to raise a Series A, founders now often need $3 million or higher growth rates to attract venture capital interest. "If you take venture capital and don't grow at venture capital paces, you could kill your company," he warns. "It is incumbent on the founder to understand their own business and choose the right type of capital for their growth trajectory." (read more…)
CATEGORY: capital, leadership, VC
February 18, 2025 Pitchbook : Venture debt hits all-time high as startups diverge from VC expectations
Later-stage startups are increasingly turning to venture debt as they struggle to keep up with growth expectations from VCs, and as a way to avoid raising equity financing at lower valuations. (read more…)
February 15, 2025 Pitchbook : Record highs for down rounds
In 2024, one-quarter of Series D+ venture financings in the US were completed at a lower valuation—and that's actually a lower percentage than the year prior. Down rounds have been spiking for the past few years, unsurprisingly. Those same Series D+ rounds were being completed at lower valuations at a 7% occurrence in 2021. Receiving equity interest from investors, even in a down round, is a step in the right direction away from shutting down. (read more…)
January 9, 2025 VC Lab : The State of Venture 2.0 in 2024
Our analysis of over 850 new fund managers in 2024 – representing approximately half of all VC firms launched worldwide – reveals a striking transformation in who gets to write the checks. Today’s emerging managers are younger (46% under 40), more diverse (27% women and non-binary), and increasingly likely to come from outside the industry (48.8% transitioning from other sectors). (read more…)
CATEGORY: VC
May 13, 2024 The VC Factory : The 3 Investment Criteria Venture Capitalists Use to Screen Deal Flow
#1. Fit With The Fund's Investment Strategy #2. Team Fit With The Execution Challenges #3. Exceptional VC Returns Demand Large Markets (read more…)